According to an advice of the scientific Council visited on Sunday, the herd immunity is insufficient to prevent a second epidemic wave.
France has not ended with the outbreak of Covid-19. Even if it seems to be under control now, such as the hammer of the health authorities, a second epidemic wave “at a future date more or less distant (a few months, and in particular to the approach of the winter) is “extremely likely”, according to the scientific Council which accompanies the government since the beginning of the crisis.
In a note published Sunday, the experts explain that the latest data collected show a herd immunity, “quite inadequate to prevent the occurrence of a second wave epidemic”. According to them, only 5% of the French population would have been contaminated by the virus.
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“The traffic is still very important to the virus on a global scale, and especially in the southern hemisphere entering its winter period ; and the experience of the flu pandemics that occurred in two or three waves before adopting a seasonal distribution, suggest that intensification of the circulation of SARSCoV-2 in the northern hemisphere at a future date more or less distant (a few months, and in particular to the approach of the winter) is “extremely likely”, alarm the scientific Council.
in the autumn ?
This wave may occur in the fall, to believe the predictions of professor Jean-François Delfraissy, the chairman of the scientific Council. “If you look at the history of the great pandemics of respiratory viruses, we can see that eight out of ten regress in european countries and in a spontaneous way during the summer. On the other hand, you have five out of ten who re-offend in the fall,” he said in an interview to the Parisien, dated 4 June.
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Thus, in order to better monitor the evolution of the epidemic, the scientific Council recommends to maintain the health data collected throughout the epidemic, “for the purposes of research and epidemiological follow-up.” Each identity will be “pseudonymisée” and not “anonymous”, “so that the data of the same individual, non-identifying, can be linked together, or linked with data from other base,” says the document.
