The motions of censure are voted on Monday, March 20 in the National Assembly. The government runs the risk of seeing the pension reform rejected and of being overthrown, but the chances of the motions succeeding are slim. The votes of the LR deputies promise to be decisive.
Will a motion of censure be right for pension and government reform? While Elisabeth Borne has used Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force the adoption of the text, for lack of a majority in the National Assembly to support the reform even in its so-called compromise version, she must this Monday 20 March assume the consequences of this decision. Two motions of censure have been tabled by the opposition groups and each of them will be voted on Monday from 3:30 p.m. in the National Assembly. If the text carried by the National Rally has no chance of succeeding, the left refusing to vote for it, the cross-party motion signed by the centrist deputies Libertés, Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires (Liot) and those of the left groups and environmentalist is still a source of hope for the opposition. But there again, the chances of succeeding are slim.
To reject the adoption of the pension reform and overthrow the government, only one solution: to collect the absolute majority of votes in the National Assembly, ie 287 votes. A mathematically attainable threshold, all the opposition forces being greater than the relative majority of the Macronist camp in the hemicycle. But if the left, the far right and the centrists are ready to unite, opinions diverge in the LR bearing essential for the success of the motion of censure. On the French side, however, the majority is clear: 68% want a motion of censure to be voted according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV. Even among LR voters, a narrow majority (53%) want to see the opposition win. Will the deputies prove him right by overthrowing the Borne government?
As announced, the Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group filed, with the Nupes, a motion of censure. For its part, the National Rally did the same. Do either of the two censure motions have a chance of succeeding? Let’s immediately dismiss the hypothesis that the one presented by the RN succeeds. The whole Nupes (LFI, EELV, PS, PCF) has a red line: never sign a text from the far right, whatever it is.
On the other hand, that of LIOT could achieve more consensus. The elected representatives of this group will sign it, but not all of them: at least three could oppose it (the 3 who opposed the motion of rejection voted at the start of the examination of the pension reform bill ). However, all of Nupes (except possibly a socialist deputy), as well as the RN which will support all motions. Of the 5 non-attached MEPs, at least 2 should support her. The accumulation of these various signatures does not make it possible to reach the required minimum.
The key therefore lies, as for the (no) vote on the pension reform, in the hands of the group Les Républicains. Eric Ciotti, LR president, announced that his group of 60 elected officials would not sign the motions. A waste of time then? Not so fast. Some LR deputies are dissidents and will initial the text. How much remains to be seen. Two have already publicly announced that they would sign the motion (Fabien Di Fillipo and Pierre Cordier) and BFM TV advances a total of seven at LR, when Politico holds the figure of 10, without any certainty. However, this would not achieve the necessary minimum. At this stage, given current or previous public positions, 259 deputies could vote for LIOT’s motion of censure. It would therefore be missing, as it stands, 28 votes. Can they be found by Monday? This will be the challenge of the weekend.
To tell the truth, it is difficult to imagine the trend reversing. Only a minimal fringe of deputies could switch to one side or the other, without any real impact. According to our calculations, only 12 deputies appear as still uncertain about the camp they will choose on Monday. Among the deputies who could lean in favor of the motion of censure, the LR Ian Boucard and Fabrice Brun who had voted for the motion to reject the pension reform, just like Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and Adrien Quatennens, both non-registered .
This same rejection motion had not been to the liking of three LIOT deputies (Béatrice Descamps, Pierre Morel-à-l’Huissier and Christophe Naegelen), nor of the socialist Isabelle Santiago, just like David Habib and Emmanuelle Ménard (no -registered). Will these six elected officials confirm their choice by not voting for the motion of censure?
Finally, two LRs seem to be in total indecision: Pierre-Henri Dumont and Jean-Yves Bony. Both had abstained on the motion to dismiss and have yet to state their position on the matter. “It is negotiated, it is discussed”, simply dropped the first to Les Echos.
Among the 572 deputies currently able to vote in the National Assembly (4 seats are vacant and Yaël Braun-Pivet, President of the Assembly, cannot vote), who will position themselves for or against the motion of censure which aims Elisabeth Borne and her government after the action of 49.3? Thanks to our search engine, you can find it by typing the name of your MP (with a capital letter in the first letter, the necessary accents and dashes) or by searching by department. In addition, it is possible to filter your search according to the position of the elected official.
How did we come up with this list? First, starting from the group position. LFI, EELV, PS, PCF, RN and LIOT all announced that they would vote for the motion of no confidence. LREM, the MoDem and Horizons are against it, as is LR. However, some dissenting voices were heard. First at LR where two deputies publicly announced their intention to vote for the motion of censure. Then, indirectly, in other parties: at LIOT, not everyone will vote. The refractory elected officials have not yet made themselves known officially but, as explained above, we based ourselves on the results of the vote on the motion to reject, studied in the National Assembly on the first day of the pension reform. This does not bode well for the final choice of elected officials, which will not be known until Monday.
