Elisabeth Borne should remain at the head of the government until the summer, but after? While rumors of a reshuffle are circulating, a few names have already been mentioned to perhaps replace the Prime Minister.
What if Elisabeth Borne’s stay at Matignon was soon coming to an end? The question is emerging in some minds as the President of the Republic’s signs of annoyance about his Prime Minister seem to have increased in recent weeks. Latest dispute to date: the speech of the head of government on the RN “heir to Pétain” at the microphone of Radio J, Sunday May 28. This outing to the tunes of “mor[al] judgment” prompted Emmanuel Macron to reframe his Prime Minister on May 30 during the weekly government meeting.
If the Elysée and the Head of State ensure that no settling of scores takes place during the councils of ministers, the indiscretions of the members of the government who attended the scene evoke a “scud” or even a humiliation with of the Parisian. Elisabeth Borne refrained from commenting. Although Emmanuel Macron has regularly and publicly renewed his confidence in the head of government – he did it again on May 31, from Bratislava in Slovakia, the day after the famous reframing -, their professional relationship does not seem to be in good shape. Disagreements that could precipitate the departure of Elisabeth Borne?
A member of the government since the start of Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term, Elisabeth Borne is sure to stay at Matignon for a few more weeks. The sexagenarian is responsible for the roadmap of the “100 days of appeasement” which should make it possible to reduce the pressure and to move forward on major projects, including industry and ecology, after the crisis of the reform of retreats. The deadline for this three-month plan is set for July 14, a national holiday during which the Prime Minister will have to take stock of her first (and only?) year at Matignon.
The politician, often considered too technocratic, did not shine by her popularity before her appointment and the numerous appeals to 49.3 such as the fierce defense of the pension reform did not help: 62% of French people say they want another Prime minister according to an Odoxa-Blackbone poll for Le Figaro published on May 12, 2023. With another four years in office ahead of him, Emmanuel Macron may want to give new momentum to his five-year term with a new right arm. A change that could come after the summer break but before the end of the year according to several hypotheses, perhaps during the senatorial elections at the end of September?
The replacement of Elisabeth Borne is not yet confirmed, but behind the scenes the names of potential successors are already circulating according to the Express. The facility pushes to imagine some of the strong ministers of the government settling in Matignon like Bruno Le Maire or Gérald Darmanin. The first moored at Bercy and does not seem to want to change portfolio, but would he give up an appointment as head of government? The Minister of the Economy, however, would not meet the profile of a simple executor sought by the Head of State at Matignon. Also, he would harbor greater ambitions for 2027 as the perfect heir to Macronism. As for the Minister of the Interior, he would have the advantage of extending the presidential majority to the right, perhaps too much. Gérald Darmanin remains one of the most divisive personalities in government and drags along cumbersome bills such as the immigration law or his former opposition to marriage for all.
Among the ministers possibly in the race, Sébastien Lecornu could also have his chance. From Secretary of State to Minister of Defense, the man rose through the ranks avoiding scandals, remaining rather anonymous and would be appreciated by Emmanuel Macron. On paper, the minister meets many criteria that could make him the executioner of Matignon without erasing the Elysée. Still, few people seem to believe in this appointment.
Other names are mentioned according to the indiscretions of the Express, some of which were already in the running during the previous reshuffle, starting with Julien Denormandie. The former Minister of Agriculture, who is reminiscent of Emmanuel Macron in his early days, left politics but does not rule out his return, provided that it takes place in a position of weight. Only his age and his lack of experience would be brakes for some macronists. Catherine Vautrin is also mentioned, the former minister of Jacques Chirac had almost been appointed in 2022 before the choice finally fell on the current head of government. The pros and cons of the LR policy are the same, but naming it after Elisabeth Borne might feel like you made a mistake the first time around.
Two last names appear in the list of hypotheses: those of Richard Ferrand and Gérard Larcher. The first, if he no longer sits among the elected after his defeat in the legislative elections of 2022, remains a fervent defender and a close friend of Emmanuel Macron and would have said he was ready to return to the head of state. The second, current President LR of the Senate, could endorse a coalition between the majority and the right, it is only on this condition that the senator would agree to work with the Head of State, whom he does not particularly like. in his heart. If this last hypothesis is often cited, it also seems very unlikely.
