REDESIGN. While the maintenance of the government seemed guaranteed at least until July 14, 2023, a reshuffle could take place by then. Rumors are thickening on this subject and names of potential ministers are already circulating.
The government resisted a 17th motion of censure on Monday June 12, but if Elisabeth Borne and her ministers cling, the executive is undeniably in trouble. The criticisms blown here and there for weeks have only multiplied: lack of incarnation, ministers too retiring and not ready enough to go into battle, or even “cannonballs” during public appearances. And the detractors have public opinion on their side, since 6 out of 10 French people want the current Prime Minister to be replaced and therefore the government reformed, according to the Odoxa-Backbone Consulting poll carried out for Le Figaro and published in mid- may.
Faced with so much excitement, Emmanuel Macron would consider a reshuffle and faster than expected. While the members of the government thought they were safe at least until July 14, expiry of the “100 days of appeasement” plan, a change of team could be decided a few days in advance. But who would be ousted and who would replace the outgoing ministers? Nothing is certain yet except that “everyone is in the hot seat” according to an Elysian adviser to Europe 1.
With the “100 days” plan to appease public opinion after the pension reform crisis, the head of state has given the government a roadmap at least until July 14. On this date, National Day, Elisabeth Borne must take stock of her first year spent at Matignon. This perspective cut short any reshuffle before the next school year, but the change could be faster than expected. An adviser contacted by Europe 1 on June 13 expects “a reshuffle in the next 15 days”, while another mentions a “shooting window between June 19 and July 10” in Emmanuel Macron’s diary. Three weeks during which the Head of State, free of international appointments, could look into his future ministerial team. Especially according to Le Parisien, conversations have already started between him and the Prime Minister. L’Express adds that Emmanuel Macron took advice from Nicolas Sarkozy during an interview on June 6.
The replacement of Elisabeth Borne at Matignon seemed to be the main motivation for an upcoming reshuffle. In question, the lack of popularity of the Prime Minister having played the fuses during the adoption of the pension reform. If the French do not say they are convinced, the deputies have also not failed to express their opposition to the sexagenarian with 17 motions of censure tabled in just one year. The rather conflicting relations between Elisabeth Borne and Emmanuel Macron, described in several media, were also the signal of a reshuffle in approach.
But the situation would have changed. If on the political level Matignon and the Elysée are still not walking on the same line, the two political leaders could continue a (small) part of the way together. Elisabeth Borne “does the job very well” recognized a minister aware of the disagreement between the head of government and the head of state. In addition to the work carried out by the sexagenarian, it is the absence of better options which would dictate this maintenance according to an adviser close to the Elysée with Franceinfo: “He would like to change it, but the conditions are not met”. No potential replacement for Elisabeth Borne seems able to obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, any more than to conclude an alliance with the right. If the Prime Minister can hope for a reprieve, her future at Matignon, in particular in the long term, still remains uncertain.
The fate of the Prime Minister is not yet sealed, nor those of the ministers of her government. A few heavyweights who have been loyal to Emmanuel Macron are immune, including names like Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin, Gabriel Attal and Olivier Véran. Ministers encumbered by legal cases could on the other hand be in the hot seat, like the Keeper of the Seals Eric Dupond-Moretti or the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt. Marlène Schiappa, who has multiplied the controversies in recent weeks, with her front page in Playboy and above all the suspicions about the mismanagement and use of the Marianne Fund, could also be sidelined imagine Franceinfo.
Among the ministers who were not convinced are those from civil society. Appointed to key positions, Health Minister François Braun and Education Minister Pap Ndiaye have not done enough in the eyes of some members of the government. “The two major public services are weakened, they have not taken their subjects head on,” one of them told the public media.
To settle in the ministries, the suitors are not lacking. Above all, the replacement of most members of the government would not be experienced as an earthquake by the French. Aside from the handful of ministers on the front line since the previous term, no one has impregnated with the population. And even internally, according to an elected official of the majority. “The other day, Marc Ferracci (Renaissance MP) did not even recognize Sonia Backès (Secretary of State for Citizenship)!”, He laughs in L’Obs.
Some macronists are therefore pushing to move the lines. “Macron has no other choice” launches one of them to the weekly, pleading for “a tighter and more identified team”, a colleague who agrees with La Dépêche du Midi: ” We need more political profiles. An incarnation in Health and Education is necessary.”
So who to take a morocco? Names of deputies such as those of Aurore Bergé (president of the Renaissance group in the Assembly), Guillaume Kasbarian (president of the Economic Affairs Committee), Saché Houlié (of that of Laws), Florent Boudié, Maud Bregeon or even Marie Lebec are quoted by L’Opinion. What if the Senate also became a breeding ground? Mathieu Lefèvre and Louis Margueritte could be in the race. For what positions? The time is not there. But, with discretion to try not to get burned, everyone tries quietly to place their pawns.
