The CO2 or oxides of nitrogen have dropped between 10% and 30% during the confinement, but these “major changes of behaviour” are temporary, according to a study.
The unprecedented drop in greenhouse gas emissions during the confinement will be “nothing” to slow global warming, according to a study on Friday, which insists on the need to move away permanently from fossil fuels.
The global CO2 emissions responsible for the climate changes could decrease up to 8% in 2020, due to measures imposed through the world to slow down the epidemic of Covid-19. But in the absence of a systemic change in the field of energy and power, these emissions savings of greenhouse gas emissions may be insignificant, warn the authors of this study published in Nature Climate Change.
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The researchers calculated how 10 greenhouse gas emissions have been assigned to 120 countries between February and June. The CO2 or nitrogen oxides, for example, have decreased between 10% and 30%. But these “major changes” behavior are temporary. And even if the limitations of travel, in particular air, and the distancing physical continue until the end of 2021, this would only save 0.01°C of warming by 2030, say the researchers.
temporary Change
“The containment has proven that we can change, and quickly, but it also showed the limits of behavioral changes”, commented Piers Forster, a co-author of the study and director of the international Centre for climate Priestley at the british university of Leeds. “Without a structural change, we will not succeed”, he said.
The Paris agreement of 2015, aims to limit warming to +2°C or 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial times. But the planet has already earned at least +1°C, leading already to a multiplication of events, extreme weather, and the emission reduction pledges of the States, if they were followed, always lead to a world at +3°C.
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To meet the ideal goal of the Paris agreement, it will be necessary to reduce the CO2 emissions of 7.6% per year each year between 2020 and 2030, according to the UN.
A similar figure to the projected decline for this year. But with the unprecedented economic crisis that has resulted from these measures, it would be surprising for that to happen again anytime soon, worry about Piers Forster. “If I’m completely honest, it is unlikely that the world will décarbone at a pace compatible with +1.5°C,” insists the researcher.
“green Stimulus”
The study also reviews the various scenarios of recovery post-Covid, which offers an opportunity to make radical economic changes.
A boost “green”, which would see a 1.2% increase of GDP invested in technologies low-carbon could reduce emissions by half by 2030, compared to a recovery based on fossil fuels, according to the researchers.
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“The decline in emissions observed during the Covid-19 is temporary and will not do anything to slow down climate change,” said Corinne Le Quéré, university of East Anglia. “But the governments’ responses could be decisive if they are focusing on a green stimulus,” added the scientist, president of the High Council for the climate in France.
