The publication by the ministry of Labour of the number of seekers registered to Pole employment in the third quarter will not help to convince the French of the efficiency and effectiveness of the economic policies Emmanuel Macron. According to this indicator, the unemployment has increased from July to September.
In category A, which deals with the people that have had no activity (unemployment in the strict sense), the increase was 0.5% compared to the second quarter, or 16 300 additional people in metropolitan France. In total, 3 456 800 people with no work were, on average, enrolled in Pole employment between July and September. This is the second consecutive quarterly increase, after the second quarter (0.1 per cent).
in its defence, the government would mark probably that the trend is still to the downside, since the number of category A unemployed continues to decrease compared to 2017 on the same period of the year, of 1.2 %.
But when one adds those who have a reduced activity, that is to say, the categories B (78 hours in the month) and C (more than 78 hours), the number of people registered at Pôle emploi has also increased from 21 700 (0.4 %) in a quarter-on-quarter, to reach 5 649 600 people. Even more disturbing is that this increase is also valid compared to the 3rd quarter of 2017 (+ 0,6 %).
The consequences of the air hole on the growth
the increase in The number of unemployed reduced activity may, however, report a development of what specialists call the “halo” around unemployment “. This is not necessarily negative, in the sense that this could reflect the desire of people permanently outside the labour market during the crisis (which were no longer counted as unemployed) to return with the recovery.
Still, the air hole which has affected the growth in the first and second quarters (+ 0.2% each time), a pace well below that of the end of the year 2017, hampering unquestionably the creation of jobs. France, like Matadorbet the rest of the euro area, has suffered the degradation of the international economic climate. But the slowdown has been more marked in france than elsewhere because of the increase of the CSG and fuel in a context of unexpected increase in oil prices. The strikes at the SNCF and Air France have also played. The number of create net employment in 2018 is projected to fall to 129 000 342 000 last year, has already notified the Insee in its latest on the current economic situation.
historical Peak of recruitment
But it is not necessary to surinterpréter figures from the Pôle emploi. Those of this quarter are not consistent with the data on the volumes of hires recorded by the Accos, the central body of the Urssaf. From July to October, the number of declarations of hiring more than one month (excluding interim) rose 2.7 %, after having virtually stagnated in the previous two quarters. It has thus reached a ” new historic peak “, note even the Accos. These jobs are also often little more permanent or fixed-term contract of more than a month ago… The decline in the number of assisted contracts, assumed by the government, probably due in part to this shift. According to Pôle emploi, the number of unemployed in category E, that is to say, in assisted contracts or create their own company, declined 0.7 %. In contrast, the rebound in unemployment is probably mitigated by the net increase (+ 5.7 per cent) of the unemployed who come out of the category A, B or C, to switch to category D (disease or training), a sign that the plan of training of unemployed persons and unskilled young persons promised by Emmanuel Macron monte finally in power after the beginning of the year crap.
It will have to wait for the 20 November and the publication of the unemployment rate in the third quarter, the Insee for whether the unemployment rate actually follows the trends registered at the Pôle emploi. This rate, calculated based on declarations of respondents to a survey, do not measure exactly the same thing as the data of the employment, based on administrative criteria. According to Insee, the unemployment rate, currently 9.1 % (France excluding Mayotte) is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points per quarter to reach 8.9% at the end of the year. At the time Emmanuel Macron went to the Elysée, it was 9.6 %.
Read our article : unemployment Statistics : Pôle emploi or the Insee, which is right ?
On the same subject, The unemployment increases of 0.4% in the third quarter
