The protectors of the rainforest declared Jair Bolsonaro already in the election campaign, the war. “Brazil can’t stand it anymore, that more than 50 percent of its territory designated as indigenous Land, environmental protection areas or national parks,” claimed the ultra-right politicians. The protection areas are, in reality, only 30 percent of the area. Bolsonaro swore: “If I become President, there is not a single square inch more.”

Now it is, in fact, so far. The Brazilians have chosen Jair Messias Bolsonaro for President. Thousands celebrate him as Savior, conservationists in the world, however, Evil to be feared. Because Bolsonaro stands for a radical change in environmental policy. With consequences for the entire planet.

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Bolsonaro is the wish candidate of the large landowners and cattle breeders, the raw material and timber companies. You want to cut down the Amazonian forests unmolested and yields; as in the times of the military dictatorship, the President-elect is glorified.

Bolsonaro toying with it to make a road metal, the world’s largest rain forest: the green lung of the earth. He wants to dissolve the Ministry of the environment. And He has even announced that Brazil would leave the world’s climate Treaty of Paris, should this interfere with national sovereignty.

Makes Bolsonaro on his threat, the whole world climate deal on the Brink. The announced withdrawal of the United States Donald Trump weakens the agreement of 2015, in which around 200 Nations committed to the common fight against the climate catastrophe. If now Brazil announces, the sixth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world and long-standing campaigner for the protection of the climate, there is a growing likelihood that other Nations will follow.

“fatal Signal”

“It’s an all-out effort is to keep the Store together,” says Susanne Dröge, climate expert of the Foundation for science and politics. “And it will go to the expense of the substance.” In other words: Even if the agreement should there still be kind of Fort, there is a great risk that the joint arrangements remain to lax, the warming is reasonably curb.

“An exit in Brazil would be a fatal Signal for the Paris agreement,” says Brigitte Knopf, the Secretary-General of the Berlin-based Think Tanks, MCC. “But we can prevent Brazil drops out and a Domino effect is triggered.”

Yet in the 2015 climate summit in Paris, Brazil belongs to the countries that had made for a more ambitious climate agreement. Not least for this reason was included in the Treaty, the objective to limit global warming to as 1.5 degrees and not to 2.0 degrees, as originally planned.

How real is the Worry, the cross-party call eight former Brazilian Minister of the environment. The incumbent of the years 1992 to 2016, warned together in an article for the newspaper “Folha de Sao Paulo”, Brazil should not be permitted to terminate the agreement on Climate change. Even now, the consequences of the warming are ubiquitous.

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Bolsonaro claimed, however, by the world climate Treaty, the sovereignty over a territory of 1.36 million square kilometers in the Amazon threaten Brazil to lose. In the text of the contract there is not a word of it, however. In it, Brazil has pledged to reduce its emissions in 2025 by 37 per cent compared to 2005 – a goal it has achieved, due to massively reduced deforestation to a good part. In addition, all the contributions of all countries to climate agreements are of a voluntary national self-obligations whose non-compliance, no one can sanction.

Shortly before the election Bolsonaro made a detour. He called Dumanbet for guarantees: Brazil’s sovereignty over a corridor of the Andes, through the Amazon rain forest to the Atlantic ocean had to be ensured. His country could not “risk losing our Amazon by the Paris Treaty,” the politician said. And denied, then, on demand, to want out of the contract get out.

Amazon deforestation

So contradictory and enigmatic in his statements appear, The 63-Year-old has the Amazon rain forest in their sights. The green lungs of the earth, whose territory is located a good 60 percent on Brazilian territory.

“Behind Bolsonaro big interests that want to cut down the Amazon and the country economically says are Niklas Höhne, co-founder of Cologne’s NewClimate Institute”. To timber merchants, commodity groups, which plan to open mines, and, above all, the agro – business, the land used for soy and Corn plantations as well as cattle farming addiction can include.

Bolsonaro needs the support of this powerful Lobby and their political representatives in Congress. You all expect from the President-elect a radical reversal of the policy of his predecessor. Bolsonaro has already announced plans to deliver.

the socialist President Lula da Silva of Brazil had to set up new protected areas for Indigenous and descendants of slaves; in addition, the authorities were strongly against illegal deforestation. Result: Were deforested in 2004, 2.7 million hectares of rainforest, an area fell almost as large as the whole of Belgium, this area up to 2012, more than 80 per cent – see chart above.

emission increase in the global scale

Similar to drastically fell, according to the calculations of the NewClimate Institute, Brazil’s emissions from deforestation from 1.9 billion to 0.3 billion tons of carbon dioxide. The difference of 1.6 billion tons is about twice as high as the annual CO2 emissions of the whole of Germany.

Now, however, scientists from the Brazilian Institute Inpe forecast using a simulation model, that the rate of deforestation is in the shoot-out Bolsonaro almost back to the old record stands high: 2.5 million hectares per year. Accordingly drastically would increase Brazil’s CO2 emissions. “That would be a significant emission increase, also on a global scale,” says climate researcher Höhne.

In the Video: ultra-right-wing President

Bolsonaro has promised his clientele to disempower the environmental Agency Ibama, and to merge the environment Ministry with the agriculture Ministry. As a Minister, be a close Advisor Luiz Antonio Nabhan Garcia is traded. Says on the world climate Treaty: “If he had toilet paper, since he would be just to wipe your butt.”

Dark time

“We’re running on a dark period in Brazil’s history”, says Paulo Artaxo, a climate expert at the University of São Paulo, the science magazine “Science”. “Bolsonaro is the worst thing that could happen to the environment.”

Still, Brazil’s new ruler is not in office, nor has he decided anything. And at least the exit from the global climate Treaty could still prevent says MCC researcher button. “The international community, particularly the EU, must now interact, and the climate issue, with the issue of Trade link.”

Currently, Brussels is negotiating with the Brazil-mentioned economic Alliance Mercorsur on a new free trade agreement. The President of France, Emmanuel Macron calls for the use of such contracts only with countries that adhere to the climate agreement. “If the EU would threaten higher tariffs on Brazil’s agricultural products, it would be a tremendous blow,” says button.

Whether Bolsonaro could be impressed by it? The “Trump of the tropics”, as it is called, is aiming for a close partnership with the United States. And Donald Trump would certainly be a companion for his exit from the world climate Treaty.