Will inflation finally calm down in 2024, with a return to previous prices? A food specialist gives worrying figures…
Prices have been soaring for months in stores and the announcement of more bearable inflation from next year, particularly in food, is raising hope among consumers. Those responsible for the French agri-food sector, for their part, are more cautious. Suspected of taking advantage of it and ordered to reduce their margins considered excessive, they assert that they must on the contrary maintain them to respond to the environmental and economic challenges of the sector, in the face of foreign competition which is not always subject to the same rules.
Jean-Philippe André, president of the National Association of Food Industries (Ania), recently announced during a press conference that inflation of food products would be between 2 and 4% in 2024, compared to around 20% in the last two years. He nevertheless draws attention to the challenges that the sector must face, in particular the ecological transition and food sovereignty. Challenges which in fact require margins to be preserved, according to him, to enable it to invest in decarbonization. He estimates that achieving the objectives of reducing CO2 emissions (40% reduction between 1990 and 2030 then carbon neutrality in 2050) will require billions of euros of investment.
But another actor recently gave an opinion that is even more difficult for consumers to hear. Philippe Sommer, director of Nouvelle-Aquitaine Agricultural Cooperation, recently spoke on France Bleu of a “decline in inflation” by citing INSEE figures which show “that we were at a little over 10% there a month ago, and we went to 8%. But he warns: “we will never get back to the prices they used to be”! And he justifies this situation by citing the significant increase in certain costs, particularly in the areas of breeding, processing and distribution, where wages and energy prices remain high.
“Out of 10 euros of chicken, we have three euros for breeding, three euros for processing, four for distribution,” according to him. In these last two areas, “wages have increased by 10% in one year and energy is still quite expensive”, he explains, adding that “we will never go down to the price of Ukrainian chicken”.
Philippe Sommer even invites the French to “make an effort” by favoring French and cooperative products, to contribute directly to the remuneration of farmers. Consumers, who are hoping for a drop in prices after months of galloping inflation, will have to prepare for this new reality. Above all, they will be faced with a dilemma: support the efforts of local producers by accepting higher prices, or look for less expensive alternatives that may not meet the same quality standards.
