As temperatures continue to change abruptly and rain falls frequently, what are the forecasts for the quarter ahead?
The temperatures continue to fluctuate this month of April. After a heat peak on Saturday April 6, 10 degrees were lost a few days later and the rain took its toll again. It is therefore becoming more and more difficult to anticipate the weather. So what does spring have in store? Will the good weather be there for the bridges in May? Météo France has revealed its first forecasts for the next three months. This document does not present precise data but reflects the overall trend that could emerge in France.
First of all regarding temperatures, a scenario warmer than normal would be 50% most likely according to Météo France. “Across a large part of Europe, the circulation of air masses warmer than normal remains favored,” Météo-France said. The other 50 percent are split evenly between “compliant” and “colder” than seasonal norms. La Chaîne Météo confirmed these forecasts and added a clarification: “On the scale of the April-May-June quarter, the temperatures forecast in France should remain above the seasonal averages with a difference close to 0.5 to 1°C “. This gradual rise in temperatures could prepare for a rather hot summer.
This obviously does not mean that it will be hot throughout the quarter: “Strong monthly disparities are expected between a still wet and sometimes cool start to spring, and a strong warm trend which emerges as we approach the month of June”, nuanced The Weather Channel. So, for the rest of April, the situation should improve towards drier and sunnier weather. Then, the month of May should be “beautiful but rather dry” and that of June punctuated by “high heat” and “storms”.
Regarding precipitation, estimates are still very uncertain. Météo France estimates a 33% chance of a wetter period than normal for the season. The same percentage was assessed for precipitation consistent with seasonal norms as well as for a risk of a drier period. No scenario is therefore preferred at this stage. Forecasts are less reliable for precipitation than for temperatures at this point. The Weather Channel, however, for its part is leaning towards precipitation quite close to the seasonal averages and even a possible stormy tendency, particularly in the south.
