The latest summer weather trends have been released and the upcoming summer season promises to be mixed in France.
Next summer will be marked by the transition between two phenomena: El Nino and La Nina. The first, already present in the Pacific Ocean, should give way to the second and lead to a cooling of the climate across the entire globe. But the latter should nevertheless not be felt before… the beginning of autumn. In France, no impact this summer therefore. The 2024 season should resemble the summer of 2023 and be marked by high temperatures and bad weather sometimes very severe and sometimes more anecdotal. On the drought side, the rains at the start of the year greatly recharged the water tables, which should limit the risk of water shortages which some French people suffered last year.
The month of June should be “the hottest month of the year” with “temperatures 1 to 2°C above normal” in France and throughout Europe, according to La Chaîne Météo. This increase in temperatures, however, risks being accompanied by significant storms, particularly in the departments from the southwest to the northeast, and should increase the feeling of heat, while limiting drought.
This month of June 2024 should therefore be quite similar to that of last summer, which recorded significant periods of sunshine with heat peaks in several regions, but which was also marked by strong depressive episodes in places. .
In July, temperatures should also be well above seasonal averages, around 1 to 1.5°C more. The weather will normally be more pleasant since the feeling of heat could be less strong due to the reduction in precipitation in June. The Weather Channel still announces the maintenance of “a punctual stormy axis, rising from the southwest and center-west to the northeast in a classic way”. Some other forecasters, notably Météo France, are announcing a more up and down month of July, with the arrival of various low-pressure episodes throughout the month, over the northern half of France.
For the month of August, the high temperatures of the previous two months should continue to impact the country, but instability could be more frequent. As for the first part of summer, the weather should be slightly less hot and more humid than last summer with “a stormy axis modeled from the southwest to the northeast,” forecasts La Chaîne Météo.
Concerning the risk of heatwave for this summer, the various models of forecasters place France in a “moderate” risk, at least for the months of July and August. However, the main heat peaks recorded for several years show that the hottest days of the year are between the last week of July and the first week of August, which coincides this year with the Paris Olympics (July 26 – August 11).
For now, La Chaîne Météo points out that “reliability is considered “average” regarding temperatures, but more limited regarding precipitation.” Precise forecasts will come later, but overall the summer is expected to be hot and stormy across most of the country and much less dry than previous ones.