After the pension reform, the adoption of the immigration law and the fragmentation of the majority, can Emmanuel Macron hope for new momentum from his five-year term for 2024?
The year 2023 will not have been rosy for the President of the Republic. In the tumult since his arrival at the Élysée, this year has been particularly intense: repeated uses of 49.3, pension reform, riots, immigration law… At the dawn of the transition to 2024, the majority is fractured and the executive loses direction. The outlines of a ministerial reshuffle are emerging to restore order to the ranks. This will in fact be the first sensitive point to be resolved, from the start of the year, for the President of the Republic. But will a possible reshuffle in January really be enough to breathe new life into the five-year term once again?
Once the casting is done, it will be a matter of finding a direction. If the Head of State maintains a certain vagueness by not wishing to express himself, for the moment, on the main axes of 2024, it is almost certain that the members of the majority will carry out a reform of the AME ( state medical aid) from the beginning of the year. The president should also return to his objective of “full employment”. At the end of November, while receiving business leaders at the Élysée, he declared: “when I listen to the major debates, unemployment insurance, pensions, we can redistribute, we can go back. The reforms, we could put them on hold. It’s time to know how we are going to be kinder, how we are going to engage…” Before asking society to “wake up” in the face of a unemployment rate of 7%. A file which should please neither the left nor the streets and which risks destroying political stability within the country for good.
In 2024, Emmanuel Macron should also focus on the European elections scheduled for June 9. Faced with the far-right who is over-motivated to take up space in the European Parliament, the President of the Republic will have to redouble his efforts if he wants to maintain his credibility in Europe. The summer will also be that of the Olympic Games. Organized between July 26 and August 11, the sporting event will be a major test for the executive.
