OM and OL are not at the level at the start of the season, but it is also because of their enormous bad luck. The proof in numbers.
The two “Olympics” of French football, Olympique de Marseille and Olympique Lyonnais, are in the midst of a sporting crisis. Both clubs have already changed coaches, even twice for OL, without really seeing any improvement in their results since the start of the season. The Lyonnais are still last in Ligue 1, with the worst goal difference (-13), the second worst attack and the second worst defense. The Phocaeans are ninth and are unable to string together victories to move up the standings.
But if we are to believe the figures provided by Opta, a specialist in sports statistics, the two teams are mainly weighed down by their enormous bad luck. The analysis of goals scored (excluding “own goal” goals from the opposing team), like that of goals conceded, is quite impressive on this point.
Olympique Lyonnais is even cursed! The Rhone residents have only scored 10 goals this season, whereas they should have scored 17.8 according to Opta analyses, which reflects a fairly large number of chances created, too rarely converted. We are talking here about “expected goals”, which correspond to the number of goals expected in each match taking into account, for each shot, the position of the shooter, the part of the body used, the position of the opposing defenders and goalkeeper.
And this gap is not linked to OL’s clumsiness, since the number of expected goals increases when we observe the quality of Lyon’s shots: OL then displays 18.6 expected goals after the shot (“post-shot”). expected goals”). It is therefore truly bad luck and the regularly excellent performances of the opposing goalkeepers which are holding back OL offensively. The observation is almost the same defensively, where Lyon is also the team with the biggest difference between goals conceded (24) and expected post-shot goals (20.4). Which above all reflects below-average performances from its goalkeeper, Anthony Lopes.
The situation is a little different for OM, who have scored only 14 goals, despite no less than 19.7 expected goals since the start of the season. Taking shot quality into account, they only have 14.5 expected goals this time, which is 5 fewer than before they hit. In other words, it is the clumsiness in front of the goal which penalizes the attack of the Phocaeans, who can only blame themselves, or almost…
Defensively too, OM is unfortunate compared to what is expected, or rather lacks efficiency at the fateful moment. The Marseillais have the best defense in terms of chances suffered: only 11.3 opponent expected goals, the lowest figure in the championship. But they conceded 14 goals, almost 3 more, notably due to an underperformance from their goalkeeper Pau Lopez, who should statistically prevent more goals.
Ultimately, the two Olympics should move up the rankings if success finally smiles on them offensively and if their respective goalkeepers return to their best level. Anthony Lopes and Pau Lopez are in fact the worst goalkeepers in Ligue 1, just behind Steve Mandanda, in number of goals conceded compared to expected goals after shots. These statistical imbalances, particularly offensive ones, rarely last for the entire duration of a season.
