Emmanuel Macron is convinced that the pension reform is necessary and that it imposes the circumvention of the vote of the Assembly. But the president is aware of the limits of the method.
The head of state has been little heard on pension reform, leaving his government and his Prime Minister on the front line for weeks. But Emmanuel Macron will not be able to remain silent any longer, as the political crisis is acute: a speech, undoubtedly a solemn speech, should intervene quickly. According to information from La Dépêche, this speech could take place this Tuesday, March 21, two days before the strike day scheduled for Thursday, March 23, in the evening.
If the speech is limited to a modest exercise in pedagogy, to yet another argument on the importance of this reform, it could well be only a sword stroke in the water. Emmanuel Macron will of course insist on his determination to pass this measure, but he will not make the same speech as Elisabeth Borne on TF1 last Thursday. Neither in substance nor in form.
In reality, it is probable that the president will address the French in an attempt to stimulate a new political dynamic. The trial in disconnection? The accusations of rotting social movement or authoritarianism? Emmanuel Macron will have to make it heard that he is aware of the extent of the rumble. No doubt he will have to admit, too, that the method was not very good: the Head of State measures the rejection caused by the use of 49.3, he nevertheless chose this path. It also measures that the long-sought compromise, in particular with the LR deputies, has resulted in an impasse.
So, what announcement should we expect? According to confidences of Elysée advisers, reported by La Dépêche, the change of Prime Minister is a possibility. “If the fact of sacrificing Elisabeth Borne can make it possible to appease the street, we will not hesitate”, said the latter, while a minister assured the same newspaper that “the reshuffle is the only weapon he stay” to Emmanuel Macron. But redesigning for the sake of redesigning would not make sense. It is a political stability that the president must seek. What if it went through a “government pact” with LR? Emmanuel Macron would then integrate personalities from Eric Ciotti’s party into the executive, if the outstretched hand is seized. A way of registering the end of his five-year term in a form of institutional solidity, on the right, with the constitution of a de facto majority in the National Assembly. The assumption looks like a siding, but it’s still better than the wall.
