Voting intentions for Valérie Hayer and Raphaël Glucksmann in the European elections are tightening according to the polls. But a crossing of the curves remains unlikely, we tell you why.
Only a few points now separate Valérie Hayer’s list from that of Raphaël Glucksmann in the polls for the European elections. While the Macronist MEP sees her curve drop, that of the candidate of the Socialist Party and Place publique is experiencing favorable dynamics. Does this mean that Glucksmann could overtake Hayer in the last month of the campaign? “On paper, yes”, concedes to Le Monde Brice Teinturier, who however affirms that it is “unlikely”.
Because the potential voters of Raphaël Glucksmann, points out the deputy general director of the polling company Ipsos, are for the moment less sure of their vote than those of Valérie Hayer: in the April Ipsos barometer, 71% of those who indicate that they want to vote for the Macronist, qualify their choice as definitive, compared to only 55% of those who opt for the socialist list.
Certainly, “if we calculate the high point and the low point of each of the lists present by taking the hypothesis that half of the voters who say they are not sure of their choice switch in favor of the second voting choice they indicate, the low point of the Hayer list is 14.5% of voting intentions while the high point of the Glucksmann list is 16.5%”, summarizes Brice Teinturier.
But “is this crossing probable? No or not yet”, estimates the pollster. Firstly because he sees “a real possibility that part of the majority electorate, currently under-mobilized, will re-mobilize at the end of the campaign”.
Then because “the progress of Raphaël Glucksmann refers” mainly “to significant flows within the space of the left”: the potential voters of the PS, La France insoumise, the Communist Party and Europe Ecology The Greens still have a high rate of uncertainty regarding their vote. “It is therefore enough for some to return to EELV, the FI or the presidential majority for Glucksmann to shrink and the gap with Hayer to increase.”
