As the European elections approach, the majority finds itself weakened by immigration adoption. Conversely, the National Rally is gaining ground, according to recent polls.
The political campaigns for the European elections began, shortly after the adoption of the immigration law, in a tougher version, and voted for among others by the Republicans and the National Rally. According to a poll carried out by Ipsos and Sopra Steria, the far right could win 37% of the votes on June 9, 2024, all lists combined. It is the National Rally which comes first among all the parties on the political spectrum. The far-right party had 28% of the votes on that date. The survey also mentions abstention. At this stage, between 41 and 45% of respondents are certain to vote. As a reminder, in the last European elections, participation was 50.6% (eight points more than in 2014).
At the same time, the majority party, Renaissance, is preparing. MEP Stéphane Séjourné is tipped to head the party list from the start of 2024, according to Le Figaro. The designation should take place “at the end of January, beginning of February”, according to Loïc Signor, spokesperson for Renaissance. Stéphane Séjourné would “want” it, according to relatives. For others, “we have Mr. Séjourné who will lead the list, and we must campaign for him,” defended the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin. The option of seeing the MEP take the head of the party comes after Thierry Breton, European Commissioner, Bruno Le Maire, Minister of Bercy, and Elisabeth Borne, Prime Minister, all three declared that they were not candidates. The party’s objective is now to present itself as the only “pro-European” party. The idea is therefore to mobilize Macron’s voters again, without trying to convince new ones, for more “electoral effectiveness”, according to a source reported by Le Figaro. The party’s communication should be reinforced by numerous recruitments, to highlight the European reforms which took place during these two mandates. But doubt is more present than ever within Renaissance, the immigration law being strongly criticized by part of the majority. Enough to make negotiations complicated with the allies of Horizons, UDI and Modem.
