Several players in finance and real estate say that it will be more interesting to borrow in a few months.
“Dear customer, you have submitted a loan request to our agency. After examining your file, it is not possible for us to grant it a favorable response.” Thousands of French people have received this type of mail in recent months. Since the start of 2024, one in five mortgage applications has been refused by banks. A rate still high, but lower than in 2023 when it was 34%! This change in situation is mainly due to a fall in interest rates, allowing more households to request a cash advance to finance the purchase of a home.
A positive signal to unblock a stalled real estate market. But there is no point in rushing to your bank advisor. It is still better to wait a few months before requesting it because other good news will arrive, several professionals in the sector agree. So be patient, it could benefit you by the end of the year. Indeed, the downward dynamic will continue.
According to Cafpi, one of the main real estate loan brokers, but also the Crédit Logement Observatory, interest rates will continue to fall over the weeks to arrive, on average, at 3.25% or 3.30%. . For these players in the sector, these forecasts should be reached by December 2024. Waiting six months could therefore allow borrowers to obtain more liquidity than currently. And not just a little.
According to Cafpi’s calculations for Le Monde, next December, “a monthly payment of 1,000 euros will allow you to borrow 176,000 euros at 3.30% excluding insurance, compared to only 162,000 euros in November 2023 at 4.30% .” An increase of 14,000 euros which necessarily offers additional square meters for buyers. At least in theory.
Because the fall in interest rates has a side of the coin which is not negligible. “If the purchasing capacity of loan candidates improves, effectively relaunching transactions (slowly but surely) and causing buyers to flock again, it is a safe bet that property prices will begin to stagnate again or even to climb in certain cities”, we anticipate at the broker Pretto. Wait to pay less interest to the bank, yes. But not sure that the amount of the transaction will decrease that much.
