On 15. In January, it’s come to the final Brexit vote. There is an orderly Brexit or a mess? These are the possible scenarios.
On the 29. March is finally closing. Then Britain will leave the European Union. Whether with or without the agreement, the to the 15. January to decide , when the British tuning house about the Prime Minister, Theresa May negotiated a Deal with the EU.
The vote will have already the 11. December of last year, to go on the stage. May the Brexit vote, said in the face of an impending defeat. In the result, the Prime Minister herself had to have a vote, you win with a narrow majority, and thus in the office could be trusted.
Agreed on by the Parliament at the Brexit vote for the Deal with the EU, there is a “soft Brexit” with the transition phase. The given house of a refusal, threatens to exit a Chaos. These are the possible scenarios:
scenario 1: agreement is in Brexit-vote
Parliament Says “Yes” it comes to the “soft Brexit” and the Brexit-the agreement applies. The provides for a transitional phase until the end of 2020. Theresa May needs 320 votes, so that the agreement can be ratified.
In this transition phase, you may close the British have trade agreements that occur after the deadline. The UK remains in the EU internal market and the customs Union. The EU rules continue to apply, even if the British are not allowed to have a say in Brussels. Limitations when traveling, as well as customs controls, it shall not enter into the transition phase.
Depending on the progress of the negotiations, there is the Option to extend the Transition period once until the end of 2022.
What happens after the Brexit-the transition phase? The the contract
the end of 2020, but no later than the end of 2022, says ending the Already – and time to negotiate for the UK. Then the exit agreement shall remain in full force and effect. The objective is that the UK is in a free trade relationship with the EU, but are part of the European internal market.
British are living on the European mainland must remain the same in the opposite case. Until the end of the transitional period, the UK continues to comply with its financial obligations towards the EU.
Northern Ireland and the “Backstop”: Why this point is so crucial
Largest and kniffeligster point of contention in the agreement, the Northern Ireland question, which now depends on the outcome of the Brexit vote. Since the end of the civil war in Northern Ireland in 1998, the non-visible border line between the British Northern Ireland and the independent Republic of Ireland is open. Economically, the two countries are linked closely.
The border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, and Ireland, the member continues to be the EU, remains open. Not succeed in the UK and the EU, but to close a common trade agreements, acts as an emergency solution to the so-called “Backstop”. In order for the UK staying in the European customs Union, Northern Ireland is still part of the European single market. Controls at the Irish/Northern Irish border would be prevented, the risk of a renewed Flare-up of the Northern Ireland-minimizes conflict.
Against the “Backstop”. there is also a resistance. All progressing through the Northern Ireland party, the DUP, which opposes different treatment of the North of Ireland to the EU exit. The crux of the matter: Theresa May is to rely on the votes of the DUP, with the help of you and your Conservatives form a minority government.
Also, in the case of Gibraltar, to which Spain lays claim, the agreement on a solution. Spanish commuters can continue to work without a problem in Gibraltar. When making decisions, Gibraltar, relating to, in the future, Spain’s consent should be obtained.
+ opponents and supporters of the UK leaving the EU held in the days before the Brexit vote demonstrations.©Reuters / Alastair Grant
scenario 2: the lower house rejects EU Deal in the case of Brexit-vote
it Should come at the Brexit vote to “No”, there are two scenarios conceivable. In the case of the “hard Brexit” and the abrupt break with the EU’s economic Chaos. The exit from the EU single market and the customs Union could have the crash of the British pound, likewise, the exports would plummet.
On the British, the citizens live as a Non-EU on the mainland and work would be in applying for a residence and work permit.
With the “hard Brexit” would limit the Northern Ireland of an EU-foreign, bringing back border controls would be necessary. Some fear the resurgence of the old conflict, and economic problems.
“Hard Brexit”: Brits prepare for the worst
As the current developments on the Brexit vote would likely lead to a “hard Brexit”, samples some of the case of an emergency. In the port town of Dover, the British government carried out a truck-Exercise, in order to prevent traffic jams in the necessary border controls.
in addition to 3500 soldiers are to be mobilized, to be on any emergency preparedness. Announced by the UK Minister of defence, Gavin Williamson.
scenario 3: withdrawal from The Brexit
rejected the agreement, there is still another possible scenario. Roughly, this means: Britain may call off the Brexit unilaterally. The judges of the European court of justice (ECJ) had ruled in mid-December 2018, that the British can withdraw without the consent of the other EU countries from Brexit. Condition a the preceding “democratic process”, about a second Referendum. In addition, the withdrawal from the outlet to the Council of the EU must be notified in writing.
in addition to “soft” and “hard Brexit” is, therefore, also the theoretical possibility of a “No Brexit”.
