An Ifop poll gives a first glimpse of the result that the Prime Minister would obtain in the first round if he decided to run in the 2027 presidential election.
The rapid rise of Gabriel Attal within the government – at 34 he has already held the positions of Spokesperson, Minister of National Education up to his current position of Prime Minister – poses more and more seriously the question of his candidacy for the 2027 presidential election. Ifop carried out a survey on this subject for Le Journal du Dimanche on January 15, 2024. The organization specifies that the survey “was carried out among a sample of 1,144 people registered on the electoral lists”.
The study considered different scenarios in which it included potential presidential candidates. The poll notably compared the results of two specific situations where the Prime Minister and another candidate oppose each other. The first hypothesis opposes Gabriel Attal to Marine Le Pen and the second, Gabriel Attal to Jordan Bardella, i.e. the two far-right candidates facing the Prime Minister.
The first scenario is not favorable to Gabriel Attal. Indeed, according to the results obtained by the poll, Ms. Le Pen would win 32% of the votes while Mr. Attal would obtain 23%. In this scenario the gap between the two candidates is quite pronounced. On the other hand, the results are different in the second hypothesis, that where Gabriel Attal would be in competition with Jordan Bardella. In this case, the National Rally candidate would collect 28% of the votes against 24% for the Prime Minister. A gap which is considerably reduced compared to the first hypothesis.
During this first fictitious round, Mr. Attal would therefore arrive just behind Marine Le Pen and before Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who collected 14% of the votes. Same order of candidates in the second scenario but with different percentages. In the Attal/Bardella hypothesis, Mr. Mélenchon once again comes in third position but with 14.5% of the votes.
Also note that Edouard Philippe is doing a little better than Gabriel Attal, with between 25 and 26% of voting intentions, in the event that he is the Macronist center-right candidate. Another lesson: Laurent Wauquiez does not exceed 6% of voting intentions.
This survey also allows us to see the evolution of the Prime Minister’s popularity. Indeed, the study compares the voting intentions recorded for a previous Ifop survey. The survey in question was carried out in October 2023 for Le Figaro and Sud Radio. In 2023, Gabriel Attal won 19% of the votes in the first round of the election while Marine Le Pen received 33%. We therefore note an increase for the Prime Minister.
