The European Union’s embargo on Russian oil risks generating a shortage of diesel at service stations this winter.
Will motorists have diesel at the pump this winter? Will endless queues at gas stations make a comeback in France, as was already the case a year ago and at the end of the first quarter this year? The risk is very real after the International Energy Agency warned this Thursday of the possibility of a diesel shortage in Europe in the coming months. At issue is the European Union’s embargo on Russian crude oil for 10 months now – in response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine continued since March 2022 – and the inability of European countries to find a real alternative.
In its monthly report released today, the IEA insists on the fact that “European refiners are still struggling to increase their processing rates and their diesel production”. Without Russian oil, and in the context of global production falling for several weeks at the request of Saudi Arabia in particular in order to raise prices, Europe does not appear able to produce enough diesel to cover its needs. To avoid a shortage, the IEA encourages it to improve its yields in refineries and above all to resort to “sustained imports” from other countries.
Why a mild winter would be better
In this uncertain context, a mild winter could be an ally for European countries. Contrary to certain preconceived ideas, particularly due to the proven overconsumption of fuel caused by the use of air conditioning in summer, vehicles generally consume more in winter. This is explained by the fact that fuel is denser when it is cold and is therefore consumed more quickly.
The diesel supply difficulties facing Europe are also starting to have an impact on prices at the pump. So much so that in the space of a few weeks, the price of diesel caught up and then exceeded that of Sans-Plomb-95 in France, with respective prices displayed at 1.89 and 1.86 euros on average last week at service stations. . And the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since the Hamas attack perpetuated on October 7, in a region where maritime oil trade is important, risks further weakening the markets and causing a further increase in prices.
