To turn the page on pensions, Emmanuel Macron announced “100 days” to move forward on other topics. As the end of this period approaches, Elisabeth Borne seems more and more in the hot seat.
[Updated June 15, 2023 at 6:23 p.m.] After successfully facing a 17th motion of no confidence on Monday, June 12, has Elisabeth Borne obtained the assurance of keeping her position at Matignon? It’s hard to say, but July 14 is sure to be an enlightening day. The “100 days of appeasement” advocated by Emmanuel Macron will then be over.
For Le Monde, “since the start of the pension crisis, the head of state has been blowing a hot and cold wind”. Elisabeth Borne tries to multiply the announcements of new major projects within the government. Sunday June 11 on the set of France 3, she dismissed any idea of ????reshuffling, stressing that “it is not with you that I will discuss this question” but rather with Emmanuel Macron.
A departure seems to confirm the hypothesis of a great upheaval according to the Parisian. This is that of Aurélien Rousseau, soon to be Elisabeth Borne’s former chief of staff. According to their information, the former director of the Regional Health Agency “leave for personal reasons” but “some voices evoke tensions with the Elysée”. Several people have been approached for this position, but no one has responded favorably to this call.
The regional daily wonders. “Who would do better than Elisabeth Borne in the current context?” During her speech to the National Assembly during the examination of the motion of censure carried by Nupes, the Prime Minister highlighted that “there is no alternative majority” to hers. A way to consolidate its position and above all to indicate that a change at the head of the government would not change the balance of power existing in the Assembly.
Le Monde believes that two choices are available to Emmanuel Macron: “A managerial reshuffle, which would mean the failure of ministers from ‘civil society’ or a reshuffle for political purposes, which would continue the right-wing of the five-year term”.
This second way echoes the threat in the Sunday Journal of Olivier Marleix, president of the group Les Républicains in the National Assembly. The latter, questioned on the possibility of a new 49.3 on the immigration law, replied that “if the government wanted to pass to the National Assembly in force on a lax text which aggravates things in terms of immigration rather than settle, on a personal basis, I would like a motion of censure to be tabled.”
So there remains a second option: an internal reshuffle, drawing from within the presidential majority. Le Monde judges that this “would be limited to a reshuffle intended to tighten the collective and give it a second wind. It is a question of both reducing a team of more than forty ministers and secretaries of state and separating members government who are struggling to perform their duties.”
Stéphane Séjourné, the head of Renaissance, then invited his deputies to “a political meeting” to discuss “the strategy of the majority” according to Le Figaro. This would therefore be an opportunity to work on a rapprochement with LR. The head of state even met on June 6 at the Elysée with Nicolas Sarkozy, as revealed by L’Express. The former president would have told him that “when France leans to the right, you have to appoint a right-wing prime minister.”
However, the uncertainty at the head of the Republicans would make the president suspicious, who has not forgotten the failure of an agreement on pensions. The leaders of the right-wing party refuse to position themselves publicly on a possible alliance like Olivier Marleix, on BFMTV: “We have nothing to do with the President of the Republic, our project is not the same, so he there will be no alliance.”
The replacement of Elisabeth Borne is not yet confirmed, but behind the scenes the names of potential successors would circulate according to the Express. The facility pushes to imagine some of the strong ministers of the government settling in Matignon like Bruno Le Maire or Gérald Darmanin. The first moored at Bercy and does not seem to want to change portfolio, but would he give up an appointment as head of government? The Minister of the Economy, however, would not meet the profile of collaborator performing sought by the Head of State at Matignon. Moreover, he would harbor greater ambitions in view of 2027 as the heir to Macronism. As for the Minister of the Interior, he would have the advantage of extending the presidential majority to the right, perhaps too much. Gérald Darmanin remains one of the most divisive personalities in government and drags along cumbersome bills such as the immigration law or his former opposition to marriage for all.
Among the ministers possibly in the race, Sébastien Lecornu could also have his chance, according to several political press titles. From Secretary of State to Minister of Defense, the man rose through the ranks avoiding scandals, remaining rather anonymous and would be appreciated by Emmanuel Macron. On paper, the minister meets many criteria that could make him the executioner of Matignon without erasing the Elysée. Still, few people seem to believe in this appointment.
Other names are mentioned according to the indiscretions of the Express, some of which were already in the running during the previous reshuffle, starting with Julien Denormandie. The former Minister of Agriculture, who is reminiscent of Emmanuel Macron in his early days, left politics but does not rule out his return, provided that it takes place in a position of weight. Only his age and his lack of experience would be brakes for some macronists. Catherine Vautrin is also mentioned, the former minister of Jacques Chirac had almost been appointed in 2022 before the choice finally fell on the current head of government. The pros and cons of the LR policy are the same, but naming it after Elisabeth Borne might feel like you made a mistake the first time around.
Two last names appear in the list of hypotheses: those of Richard Ferrand and Gérard Larcher. The first, if he no longer sits among the elected after his defeat in the legislative elections of 2022, remains a fervent defender and a close friend of Emmanuel Macron and would have said he was ready to return to the head of state. The second, current President LR of the Senate, could endorse a form of coalition between the majority and the right, it is only on this condition that the senator would agree to work with the Head of State that he does not wear not particularly in his heart. If this last hypothesis is often cited, it also seems very unlikely.
The names most threatened would be those of Marlène Schiappa, Secretary of State in charge of community life, who is dragging the Marianne fund affair like a ball and chain. Pap Ndiaye is weakened by his handling of the Lindsay affair. Olivier Dussopt and Eric Dupond-Moretti could pay their ongoing legal cases. To replace them, Franceinfo believes that “more seasoned profiles, experienced in TV sets, with a more political CV, are targeted”.
