Elisabeth Borne activated 49.3 to force through the public finance programming bill without the vote of deputies. The left has tabled a motion of censure to try to overthrow the executive, but everything rests on the Republicans.
Elisabeth Borne used 49.3 for the twelfth time… But this decision is not a surprise. The Prime Minister had already prepared the way and almost predicted the initiation of this parliamentary weapon to force through the public finance programming bill (LPFP), which is very unpopular with the opposition. The text forecasts France’s financial trajectory from 2023 to 2027 and aims to reduce the public deficit to 2.7% of GDP, compared to 4.8% today, to meet the European objective of 3%.
But such a reduction necessarily implies cutting back on certain expenditures and the LPFP has not found an audience among the opposition, whether on the right or the left. No more than the use of 49.3 announced by Elisabeth on the night of Wednesday September 27 after only three hours of debate on the bill. The Nupes forces criticized a “government which is 49.3 dependent” in the words of Boris Vallaud, leader of the group of socialist deputies. And the left alliance quickly announced the filing of a motion of censure against the government, once again putting the future of the executive in danger.
Undoubtedly the rebels, the socialists, the communists and the environmentalists will vote for the motion of censure. But the text is far from certain of obtaining the majority necessary to overthrow the Prime Minister and her government. The National Rally has already voted on motions tabled by Nupes previously, but does not know how to comment on this one. Even if far-right MPs support the motion, it is not on them that the success of the text rests.
Eyes are turned, as with every motion of censure, towards the Republican deputies. But the latter have rarely shown themselves inclined to vote for the overthrow of the executive, in particular on financial texts such as the LPFP. Only the motion tabled after the passage of pension reform in March 2023 serves as an exception with a few LR dissidents who supported the text. The Republicans should therefore not vote for the motion of censure, however they do not plan to support the government either and could seek to trap the fond majority of 49.3 according to information from Politico.
Unlike finance bills, social security financing bills or amending budgets, the LPFP does not entitle you to unlimited use of 49.3. By using the parliamentary weapon on this text, the majority therefore deprives itself of its only cartridge authorized for the ordinary parliamentary session. But subtlety: the session does not begin until October 2 – the government opened an extraordinary session a week in advance to present its LPFP project, certainly wisely -, Elisabeth Borne will therefore be able to use a new 49.3 on another text like the immigration bill.
To counter this 49.3 and the executive, the Republicans are banking on the legislative route which will bring the text back to the Assembly after passing the Senate and once the ordinary parliamentary session has opened. Then “the government will be forced to draw out a new 49.3” and therefore “to burn its famous cartridge in an ordinary session” according to the right’s plan. The strategy is not foolproof, however. Some elected officials believe they know that once 49.3 is triggered, it remains active throughout the legislative process and retains its effects on the Assembly’s vote. But lawyer Stéphanie Damarey reminds Le Monde that this scenario is not planned and that “the final arbiter will be the Constitutional Council”. However, the latter has always been flexible with the government and could maintain this position, without finding fault with the use of 49.3.
