François Bayrou has indicated that he will not join the government due to a “deep” disagreement with the executive. This historic ally of the majority is slowly starting to distance itself. By remaining an ally who must be cherished.

He refused to enter the government during the reshuffle and publicly regretted a “deep disagreement over the policy to follow.” François Bayrou, who was tipped as a possible new member of the Attal government since his acquittal, caused a shock wave in the political sphere with his statements to AFP on Wednesday evening. The boss of MoDem even gave the impression of the beginnings of a break in the alliance between the centrists of MoDem and the presidential camp. But this is not the case, he assured, specifying that the MoDem remained a “full member of the majority”. A nuanced position which disconcerts centrist deputies as much as Macronie.

François Bayrou seemed determined to want to take back the reins of the Ministry of Education, but he said he “did not apply” to join the government. And when a position was offered to him, that of the Armed Forces, he declined the offer. For what ? “It’s the only sector that is doing relatively well,” he said on franceinfo this Thursday, February 8, adding that he did not want to take the place of an effective minister. But his decision is also explained by his disagreement with the executive on “the question of identification of what deserves the most care and commitment in the country”. The policies and measures taken by the government would not be the right priorities in the opinion of the president of MoDem.

Divergences which could come from the “political imbalance” that François Bayrou says he sees within the government. “There is the feeling that certain sensitivities of the majority occupy the space,” slipped the politician and close advisor to Emmanuel Macron who takes a dim view of the preponderance of right-wing forces in the executive. With eight ministers out of 14 having old affinities, more or less old, with The Republicans this “creates an imbalance” according to the centrist.

The centrist also denounces “the constant, continual and progressive rupture between the base and the powers” characterized in part by the social and geographical origin of the ministers, 11 of whom out of 14 are Parisians or Ile-de-France residents, he who campaigns for reconciliation between the capital and the provinces.

The president of MoDem, who is not the last to try to influence the decisions of the Head of State behind the scenes, has therefore decided to make himself heard publicly and goes from being a conciliatory ally to one who wants to carry his own positions if necessary, even when they diverge from those of Macronie.

If in a personal capacity François Bayrou has refused to join the government, he does not rule out having elected officials from his party appointed ministers. On the contrary, he believes that the MoDem must have “a recognized place” within the executive if only to respect the balance of forces of the majority. Because yes, the centrist party remains a “full member of the majority which wants to rebuild the country”, clarified François Bayrou. And for this, he intends to be an ally of course, but “much more liberated than before”, according to a MoDem elected official to Politico. And it is on this point that the Béarnais pulled off a nice political coup: he whose political future was uncertain before the verdict of his trial has never had so much latitude. He remains an ally that the Macronists will have to pamper so as not to risk an explosion of the majority, while now being able to express these disagreements. An ideal position to break continuity; an ideal position to prepare the ground for the 2027 presidential election.

The septuagenarian seems to judge his position to be clear, but within his ranks his declarations sometimes have difficulty getting through. Some deputies are skeptical, even very annoyed, by the exit of François Bayrou. The deputy for Hauts-de-Seine, Jean-Louis Bourlanges denounces an “inconsistency” which threatens to dangerously weaken the party in a press release: “If we were really not satisfied with the most that was proposed to us, it would have been possible to practice support without participation. We are choosing the opposite: participation without support.” It remains to be seen who the future will prove right, will the MoDem emerge stronger or weaker from this position of an ally with freer speech and positions?