While the authorities are alert to a return of an epidemic, observe the gestures of the barriers is not enough. It is also necessary to ramp up on the tests.
The doubt is not allowed any more. With a prevalence (number of positive cases per 100,000 individuals), an increase of 40% among young people, the passage of the Bouches-du-rhône and Paris in “zone of active circulation of the virus,” this Friday, and the quatorzaine imposed on the French coming from London, France, between nice and well in a second wave. New measures to break the curve of the epidemic should not be long to be revealed : mask-wearing compulsory in the company, prohibitions of traffic, closures, places or categories of establishments … The prefects of the regions have a varied arsenal. But will this be enough there to keep control of the epidemic ?
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the Answer to this question is, of course, be extremely complicated. The good news is that the second wave is very close to what experts described a few weeks ago. Due to the weakening of the gestures barriers, outbreaks of contamination have appeared a little everywhere. But, as expected, we are not facing a wall of contamination. With the exception of the figures marked the rise among young people, the indicators will turn red in a progressive manner, which gives time for the authorities to take decisions. “During the first wave, we had a rate of reproduction of the virus of 3. A person infected by contaminating three. Currently, we are close to one. This leaves more time for authorities to organise themselves”, confirms Olivier Thomine, founder of épidemap, a tool to simulate the spread of the epidemic on the whole territory of the country.
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The time is the respect of the rules
The problem ? This new wave will last longer than the first, broken in full momentum by the containment of the populations. “This time, we want to avoid out the atomic weapon. So we will accumulate more gentle to try to reduce the chain of transmission. But all of a sudden, the decrease in the number of cases likely to be very slow,” says an expert. All the more that the authorities do not control all of the settings. Side scientific, for example, there are still some areas of shadow on the way the virus spreads or the immunity that it provides. Thus, Galicia and the Canary islands prohibit smoking in the street or in a terrace without a study that is solid, has shown any transmission of the virus by tobacco smoke. In China, it is the possible re-infection that is of concern. A sexagenarian, Hubei province would have re-contracted the virus, six months after having been infected for the first time. “If this case was confirmed and that it was not an isolated case this could prevent them from reaching herd immunity,” says an expert.
pending possible clarification, and the arrival of a vaccine, the doctors continue to insist on the motions of the rail and the port of the mask. “Since the beginning, it is our first weapon. If it was applied to the letter, there would be no need to test”, recalls Olivier Thomine. The victory against the epidemic, will therefore depend on the behaviour of citizens. To begin with, young people. This category of population has asymptomatic forms of the Covid, but it can contaminate frail. A few weeks ago, scientists were discussing whether it was necessary to let it contaminate them in order to generate herd immunity. Today, the time is the respect of the rules.
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“Covid-19”, the new coronavirus
The obligation of wearing a mask in Paris extended to new districts, The mask mandatory in-company and in class a “question of coherence” Eve Engerer, the doctor complotiste, which prescribed certificates in anti-masks
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But to come to the end of the epidemic, we also need to ramp up on the tests. Currently, France has directed 600,000 per week, considers the minister of Health Olivier Véran. Not enough for the epidemiologist Catherine Hill who wants it … ten times more. According to this specialist, he would put in place of the “drive-in”, as well as an organization is quasi-military in order to test and isolate a maximum of positive people. Another difficulty is the time taken to obtain results is too long. Testing salivary diagnostics available in an hour, would simplify things. Problem, their reliability remains to be demonstrated. “It is the absence of screening, which may cause us to enter a cycle containment/déconfinement”, recently told Jean Viry-Babel, founder of Xrapid, an app that allows you to decrypt the result of the tests. We are all warned.
